The 20th century had some iconic era-defining events- World wars, Cold wars, Ozone holes and Independence movements in the Global South. 21st century felt like it lacked its own defining moments- until Covid. The world has changed so much since then that we can now define the past and the present as pre- and post-Covid eras. What has changed? The free flow of capital has rapidly increased the inequality in the world and the rise of digital commerce led to a paradigm shift in how money is made.
The rise of Chinese capital dominance and the decline of the Western political capital happened alongside. The rise in technology adoption led to technology companies investing heavily into new technology which led to an AI arms race between the tech powerhouses. A new cold war began brewing due to the ideological fracture in technology leadership- follower countries have to choose their technology alliances wisely.
This decade has also seen the end of globalisation as we knew it. Countries began onshoring supply chains due to the so-called national security concerns. Tariff wars almost derailed global economies. The game of chicken between the superpowers led to a realisation of the vulnerability of the globalised supply chains. We also realised that apart from Americans, Europeans and the Chinese, the rest of the world is merely a spectator in this game- including India, despite the thunderous roars from the politicians about the nation’s geopolitical relevance.
How do I see the next half of this decade unravelling itself? I see China achieving parity with the US on Artificial Intelligence. This will lead to a greater stand-off between the two major superpowers. I see more protectionist measures taken by major economies all around the world, especially targeting the Chinese hegemony in production. I see greater inequality and a stronger infrastructure growth in India. I see Russia returning to trading with the rest of the world after a truce is reached with the Europeans.
In the Middle East, the heated economic rivalry between the gulf countries will strain ties, but the council will try to develop ties between them, including a Schengen style travel zone. Israel will continue to spread havoc in the region- including escalations in Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iran. Western Europe including the UK will lose its appeal to businesses, however migration-friendly countries in Europe will grow stronger. The US will still maintain global military superpower status but the rivalry will be quite hot through proxy wars to test the battle readiness of both superpowers. From a spiritual perspective, Islam and atheism will grow further taking over even more dinner discussions.
That’s enough predictions for the future. We will come back at the end of the decade to see how much of this becomes true!
