The spring has begun and the flowers have bloomed. The birds are chirping and the sun is shining. The days are getting a bit too warm for my liking here in the desert city of Dubai.
An alert just popped up on my phone: “Take cover!” it said. Then there was a bang. The bedroom windows rattled, my eyes snapped open, and I was fully awake. Another blast followed. Two more came after it. These missiles felt quicker than usual. Iran appears to have deployed the higher end of its arsenal today.
The desert paradise has now turned into a conflict zone. My heart is still pounding from the intensity of the blasts. I checked my phone to see if there was any damage. It looks like the missile defence systems are still holding. The West protects the Gulf countries, including the UAE. They had two choices: stop the war early and prevent it from spreading across the Gulf, or push ahead with the annihilation of a nation. The West chose “no quarter, no mercy.” That is a rogue-state mindset, committing war crime after war crime. The words have lost their appeal.
Dubai is between a rock and a hard place. The West that once celebrated Dubai has already left. The ones who built this city stayed back, along with those who have no home to return to. This feels like a rollercoaster heading toward a giant splashdown. There are no brakes. We know we are going to get drenched, and there is nothing we can do about it. The West took diplomacy off the table, and Iran went into survival mode. Unhinged, they will soon splash down so hard that it might drench the entire theme park. Everyone is looking for an off-ramp for the rollercoaster so that the theme park is saved. Either way, everyone on the ride is doomed.
The damage is done. The bubble has burst. The Dubai story is over. Is it really? What are the options ahead for us? How can a small client state of the American empire stop the US and its rogue ally from bullying its neighbour, a smaller regional power that has now also gone rogue? There are two risky options ahead- a rock and a hard place. We could become part of the Western military bloc and invade Iran, with the grave risk of being drawn into a long-term conflict in our immediate neighbourhood. If the war drags on like the American invasions of Iraq or Afghanistan, Dubai can then bid farewell to its safe-haven status.
What is the other option? You go after the bald eagle. Build a united stance with the other nations in the region by cutting off relations with Israel and stopping investments into the American economy. This is a risky play, because if the US treats this as treason, that could be the end of the region as we know it. The final option is to force Iran back to the table. The only problem with this option is that they have already lost most of their leadership, much of their economic capacity, and may now be bracing for American boots on the ground.
We may have made a mistake in collaborating with Israel and relying on the US for our defence needs. It is easy to comment with hindsight, but that is not how realpolitik works. We can only hope that the Western interventionist engine stutters in this war and that a true multipolar world emerges from the ruins of what was once a beautiful desert land.
